Apples of Gold
Radio Script for March 17, 2008
“The Stockdale Paradox”
Hello, I’m Doug Apple…with Apples of Gold.
Have you heard of the Hanoi Hilton?
It was a brutal prisoner of war camp in North Viet Nam.
John McCain spent time there, as did James Stockdale, one of the most highly decorated Navy officers ever.
In his book “Good to Great” Jim Collins says he asked Stockdale an interesting question. He asked him what kind of men did not survive the Hanoi Hilton.
Stockdale said, “Oh, that’s easy. The optimists.”
“The optimists?” said Collins. “I don’t understand.”
The optimists, according to Stockdale, were the ones who said, “We’re going to be out by Christmas.” And Christmas would come and go. Then they said, “We’re going to be out by Easter.” And Easter would come and go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And finally, Stockdale said, they just died of a broken heart.
That sounds very bleak. But it leads up to what Collins calls “The Stockdale Paradox.”
Stockdale said, “This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end – which you can never afford to lose – with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”
Stockdale was willing to let the terrible reality of his situation sink in. He looked at the cold, hard facts, and did not stick his head in the sand. However, he did not let that rob him of his hope. He said, “I never lost faith in the end of the story. I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life.”
So what is “The Stockdale Paradox”? It’s confronting the brutal facts of your situation without losing faith that you will prevail in the end.
It’s not a false optimism that acts like there are no problems. But it’s also not a gloom-and-doom that acts like there is no hope. It’s faith and realism combined.
We find a great example of the Stockdale Paradox in Joshua and Caleb.
In Numbers 13, Moses sent 12 men to spy out the Promised Land. What they found was a very prosperous land, and a land full of powerful enemies.
Ten of the spies came back with a gloom-and-doom attitude. “Yes, it would be great to live there, but it will never happen. Those guys will destroy us!”
Joshua and Caleb saw things differently. It’s not that they ignored the challenges, they just had more faith. They said, “If the Lord is pleased with us, he will lead us into that land…and will give it to us. Do not be afraid of the people of the land, because we will swallow them up. Their protection is gone, but the Lord is with us. Do not be afraid of them.”
But the people didn’t listen, so God decided to punish them with another 40 years in the wilderness. Then the people said, “Well, if that’s the way it’s going to be, let’s go take the land!”
They quickly flip-flopped from gloom-and-doom to false optimism – and they got whooped by the Canaanites and Amalekites.
So the first time, they saw the brutal facts of their situation, but they had no faith that they would prevail. The second time, they had a blind faith that they would prevail, but they did not confront the brutal facts of their situation – mainly that God had withdrawn his support for the mission.
In “Good to Great,” Jim Collins says the Stockdale Paradox is crucial for every business. They must be willing to confront the brutal facts while keeping the faith that they will prevail.
Over the years I’ve run into many people who could have used the Stockdale Paradox. Usually what they need more of is the willingness to confront the brutal facts of their situation.
Let me tell you, there are so many people who just don’t want to think about reality. It’s unpleasant. It means more work. Where’s the fun?
I’m reading a book about a very talented high school baseball player. He even got a lot of money to sign a contract to play pro ball. He didn’t work as hard as he should have, though, and his performance suffered. The team finally cut him, but even years later he lived in the fantasy world that someday he would play pro baseball. He drank a lot and sank into depression. His life was a shipwreck, but he was repeatedly unwilling to confront the brutal facts of his situation, so it never improved.
See, we can’t do anything if we don’t start with the truth; the cold, hard truth.
Yes, the truth can be depressing. That’s where the paradox kicks in. We don’t run from the sometimes depressing truth. Whatever the truth is, we run to it. And the inoculation against depression is our faith that we will prevail, that it will all work out in the end.
How can we have faith that it will all work out? Because we have the hope of Bible verses like Romans 8:28 which says, “And we know that in all things God works for the good of those who love him, who have been called according to his purpose.”
So think about the Stockdale Paradox today. No, we never lose our faith and hope, but at the same time we must be willing to confront the brutal facts of our situation, then deal with them.
Comments?
E-mail me: dougapple@wave94.com.
May God bless you today! With Apples of Gold…I’m Doug Apple.
I must say that “Good to Great” by Jim Collins is one of my favorite business books of all time.
© 2008 The Arrow’s Tip
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(Proverbs 25:11 – “A word fitly spoken is like apples of gold in settings of silver.”)
Why “The Arrow’s Tip”? Each morning, after diligently seeking the Lord, I write Apples of Gold. Then before I release it to the public I pray one final prayer, “Lord, send forth your arrows.” I envision Apples of Gold as arrows, tips dipped in the river of the water of life that flows from the throne of God (Rev. 22:1), sailing toward the hearts and minds of men and women around the world.
Doug Apple
General Manager - Wave 94
Christian Radio for Tallahassee
PO Box 4105
Tallahassee, FL 32315
(850) 926-8000
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